The first stage of the league finally ended smoothly. The basic matchups and results were almost the same as the previous predictions (see: "Who will Hengda play first?"). The first opponent of Guangzhou Evergrande was finally determined as Hebei. Huaxia Fortune has also analyzed the basic situation of this opponent before (see "[Hengda 1:2 Suning] I have seen the stubbornness in front of me, then look at the distance"), at this time, it is finally no longer Being trapped by a intensive game in 4 days, I can do some relatively interesting things.
Putting aside other data, just looking at the final effects of both offensive and defensive ends-shooting and scoring, we can probably see that as a team with a high ball possession rate, it is inconsistent in strategic offense and defense. , The effect is also very different.
First of all, from the point of view of shooting data, Evergrande in 2018, like Manchester City in 2019, has a super high number of shots per game (18-20 times per game), and Evergrande in 2019 is closer to Liverpool in 2019 (field The average number of shots is about 15.5), while the number of shots of Guangzhou Evergrande in 2020 will be further reduced, only averaging 13.1 times per game.
From the point of view of the goal data, the same 2018 Guangzhou Evergrande and 2019 Manchester City have great similarities, both can give an average of 2.7 goals per game. In the 2019/2020 season, Guangzhou Evergrande is closer to Liverpool in 2019, averaging around 2.2 goals per game.
From the perspective of shots and conceded, the number of goals shot per game is extremely low for both Liverpool and Manchester City. Manchester City, which pursues the ultimate in possession, is even more terrifying, averaging only 7.4 shot opportunities per game. At this point, Guangzhou Evergrande clearly has a huge gap. In the past three years, Guangzhou Evergrande has given opponents about 12 shots per game, almost twice that of Manchester City.
From the perspective of offensive efficiency data, the overall goal rate, except for this year’s Guangzhou Evergrande, which has maintained a relatively high level, is basically at a relatively normal level in the 2018/2019 season (a goal rate of about 15%). Liverpool, which is aggressive and fast, has a better goal rate than Manchester City, which has a slow penetration.
In terms of the efficiency of different offensive methods, Guangzhou Evergrande's positional warfare is good, but the counterattack ability is very hip. From the perspective of the Premier League duo, Manchester City's counterattack efficiency is almost the same as that of positional warfare. It does not show the advantage of grasping the opponent's defensive foothold. They habitually pursue control of the ball, and often delay the counterattack due to cross-passing. Fighter. Liverpool has a 42.86% counterattack scoring rate.
Some people say that the ability to counterattack must depend on having a strong forward and fast horse. In fact, this is incorrect. The fast offensive ability can depend on the individual dribbling in a wide space, of course, can also rely on efficient and fast passing and running to achieve, and Liverpool is precisely this strong player.
The result of the differences in the characteristics of the three teams is that in the end, the three teams have obvious differences in the choice of offensive methods and the final gain.
Liverpool rely on positional attacks, but because of his sharp and fast attack, they also have a strong counterattack ability, and they contribute a lot to the counterattack. Regardless of Guangzhou Evergrande or Manchester City, it can basically be said that they rely more on positional attacks.
Leaving the results presented by the team and entering the team's offensive organization process data comparison, we can see a huge gap in the offensive organization of each team.
Although Guangzhou Evergrande also has a high ball possession rate (approximately 56%), it is actually far behind the Premier League duo. Both Liverpool and Manchester City have a ball possession rate of about 60%, of which Manchester City has a ball possession rate as high as 62.6%, which of course has a lot to do with Guardiola's passing style. But Liverpool is not a team pursuing the ultimate pass control, how did they achieve it? The answer is to rely on a lot of fast passes to drive. Judging from the average pass per game, Liverpool averaged 628.2 passes per game, which is much higher than Guangzhou Evergrande. Although from the perspective of Guangzhou Evergrande, since the 2018 season, the average number of passes per game has increased every year, and has increased to 513.5 passes per game in the 2020 season, but there is still a huge gap with the top teams.
Regardless of Liverpool or Manchester City, the high number of passes per game is not entirely based on possession of the ball. According to the data of the number of passes per minute converted from the actual possession time, the number of passes per minute for Liverpool and Manchester City is 11.71 and 12.30 respectively. The data of Guangzhou Evergrande is less than 10 times-although the past three quarters have continued to improve.
From the perspective of key passes per game and key passes per minute, Guangzhou Evergrande is absolutely behind in the number of passes per game, and the team's pass organization ability shows similar effects to the Premier League duo. This, of course, has to take into account the differences between the Chinese Super League and the Premier League opponents, or to thank the peers for the foil (after all, Guangzhou Evergrande has already ranked among the best in the Chinese Super League with more than 500 passes per game). From the perspective of Guangzhou Evergrande itself, the decline in key passing data also reflects to a large extent the decline in the organizational ability of Guangzhou Evergrande midfielder this season, which should be taken seriously.
From the perspective of the proportion of long and short passes and passing accuracy, Guangzhou Evergrande’s short pass is roughly the same as the Premier League duo. In the 2020 season, the proportion of short passes and passing accuracy has been equal to Liverpool. There is still a big gap compared with Manchester City, which has a super high proportion of short passes and a great emphasis on passing accuracy. In other words, from the perspective of the number of passes and the type of pass, even the 2018 Evergrande has no similarities with Manchester City.
Judging from the data related to the passing, it is easier to see the difference between Guangzhou Evergrande and the Premier League duo. Although both Liverpool and Manchester City do not reject the bottom pass when facing the opponent's intensive defense.
But this is undoubtedly not their conventional method. About 3.5% of the crosses accounted for almost the same as Guangzhou Evergrande this year. However, in the 2018 season, Guangzhou had 5.5% of crosses. Obviously, it is more dependent on the cross ability of the side. This is directly related to the proportion of shots and goals in the small penalty area mentioned above.
Judging from the turnover data, Manchester City has very low touch errors and forced errors, while Liverpool's touch errors are high but forced errors are very low. This is consistent with their attack characteristics mentioned above. . In Guangzhou Evergrande, the combined attack in the 2018 season was very decisive and proactive. In the following two years, the initiative and oppressiveness of the offense were getting lower and lower. The forced errors in the 2020 season showed the team's performance. The ball-holding and organizing ability in the face of the press has dropped significantly (for example, the first round of this season against Shandong Luneng's game is clearly exposed: "[Guangzhou Evergrande 0:1 Shandong Luneng] Tonight's Evergrande match Not on Wei Shihao"), which is basically consistent with the decline in midfield organization mentioned above.
从营业额数据来看，曼彻斯特城的接触错误和强迫错误非常低，而利物浦的接触错误很高，但强迫错误非常低。这与它们上面提到的攻击特征是一致的。 。在广州恒大，2018赛季的联合进攻非常果断且积极主动。在随后的两年中，这种犯罪的主动性和压迫性越来越低。 2020赛季的强迫失误表明了球队的表现。面对媒体的持球和组织能力已经大大下降（例如，本赛季对阵山东鲁能的比赛首轮比赛明显暴露出来：“ [[广州恒大0：1山东鲁能]今晚的恒大赛不在魏Shihao”），这基本上与上述中场组织的减少相一致。
It is basically impossible for Guangzhou Evergrande to learn Manchester City. In addition to the huge gap in transmission and control capabilities mentioned above, it is also difficult for Guangzhou Evergrande to learn in terms of personnel composition. Guangzhou Evergrande has no passing masters like De Bruyne and David Silva, and can find the best passing route in a small space to directly penetrate the opponent's defense. (The 90-minute converted SmartPass data of De Bruyne and David Silva occupy the top two positions in the Premier League, and the SmartPass success rate is also among the best)
广州恒大基本上不可能学习曼彻斯特城。除了上述传输和控制能力的巨大差距外，广州恒大在人员组成方面也很难学习。广州恒大没有像德布鲁因和戴维·席尔瓦这样的传球大师，可以在很小的空间中找到最佳传球路线，直接穿透对手的防守。 （De Bruyne和David Silva的90分钟转换后的SmartPass数据在英超联赛中排名前两位，而且SmartPass的成功率也是最高的）
There is also a lack of strikers with strong dribbling breakthrough ability like Sterling/Mahrez. Does Guangzhou Evergrande count on Exon, Yang Liyu or Talisca to break through?
Summary: If Guangzhou Evergrande is somewhat similar to the top teams from the perspective of offensive and defensive effects, then at the level of offensive organization, there is a big gap with the top teams. Guangzhou Evergrande does not have the passing gene and infiltrating passing talents like Manchester City. It also has a big gap with Liverpool in terms of speed (passing speed), offensive aggression and ability to resist pressing in the backcourt. However, considering the gap in personnel composition, it is almost impossible to learn from Manchester City in general, while it is still possible to learn from Liverpool. Moreover, the key point for the improvement of the offensive organization perspective is in the midfield. General running, pass and cut speed, these are never as unattainable as expecting a talented midfielder.
If the gap in offensive organization ability is obvious, can Guangzhou Evergrande show considerable ability in defensive ability? The answer may also be pessimistic.
Whether it is tackles per game (Tackles) or intercepts per game (Interceptions), Guangzhou Evergrande is far behind the Premier League duo. These defensive actions are generally made by players in the midfield and frontcourt, or closer to the index of the team's defense, tackles and interceptions generally occur less in their own 30-meter core defensive area, and more In the midfield or on the wing.
One result of the difference in the team's defensive ability in the midfield and frontcourt is that Guangzhou Evergrande's ShotBlocked and Clearances data are far greater than the Premier League duo. In other words, in the data of the last line of defense before the goalkeeper was blocked/cleared by the back line, Guangzhou Evergrande was under greater pressure, so there were more fouls in comparison.
In terms of pass blocking and pass blocking, in general, everyone's data is basically similar. As the more capable of controlling the ball, Manchester City is less likely to let opponents siege themselves.
In other words, from a purely defensive point of view, the gap between Guangzhou Evergrande's overall defensive ability and defender's defensive ability and the Premier League duo is huge. This, of course, has to take into account the very deformed foreign aid structure of the Chinese Super League. Almost all Chinese Super League teams are equipped with foreign attack lines and use local defense lines, so that the Chinese Super League defense lines have to face foreign attack lines, which naturally leads to a balance of offense and defense. There is a big imbalance. From another point of view, the foreign attack line often takes on most of the team's attacking tasks, and there are many teams where the head coach does not require him to participate in the team's defense, even in Guangzhou Evergrande. Although the coach Cannavaro has repeatedly emphasized that everyone needs to participate in defense, we can obviously see that the defensive participation of Talisca and Fernando is insufficient, and even Paulinho has repeatedly praised this season. Going to the center position and unable to return to defense in time.
From this point of view, if Guangzhou Evergrande hopes to move forward in the direction of Liverpool, then it needs to improve its defensive ability, especially the defensive ability of the whole team. In the 2019 season, Guangzhou Evergrande built the depth of defense by shrinking the line of defense and compressing the defensive space. This can certainly improve the effectiveness of the team's defense to a certain extent, but at the expense of offensive oppression. If Guangzhou Evergrande's expectation is to win the Super League championship, then this strategy of shrinking defense is undoubtedly appropriate. But if Guangzhou Evergrande has a more ambitious goal—for example, to become a top team in the world—then it is in line with the development direction of world football to increase the offensive pressure while improving the overall defensive ability, and this is for the team’s sports Ability and vitality are also a great test.
Combined with the above data comparison, we can probably draw the following conclusions:
1. Regardless of offensive organization or defensive organization, Guangzhou Evergrande is far from the Premier League duo. On the offensive end, the most important thing is to speed up the pass and counterattack, while on the defensive end, focus on improving the defensive ability of the team.
2. Based on the analysis of the actual situation, it is more appropriate for Guangzhou Evergrande to develop in the direction of Liverpool in the 2019 season. The shortcomings of the current midfielder are more obvious, whether in running ability, forward passing ability, and back insertion. Ability, as well as the midfield defensive interception ability has a lot of room for improvement.
3. Guangzhou Evergrande's counterattack ability is worrying this season, it needs attention.
4. This season, Guangzhou Evergrande’s more shots from outside the penalty area did not bring better results. The team should face up to the current huge problem of offensive sharpness. If it cannot introduce new aid from top passers, then learn It is a good way for Liverpool to speed up the pass and get more of the midfield line into the penalty area.
5. The ability to resist pressure and organize in the midfield needs to be improved.
6. In the case of a lack of organizational ability in the middle, it is also a good option to continue to use the side/ribs to combine the offense.
In short, it is not so much that Guangzhou Evergrande and which team is more similar, it is better to say that from some basic capabilities, Guangzhou Evergrande is still far from the world's top teams. And these gaps are really implemented, that is, the most basic running, passing, inserting awareness, covering ability, on-the-spot defense awareness, etc. in the football world. It is not how deep it is, but it is really necessary to improve it. It is a long way to go.
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